Holiday shopping often leads online stores to think first about discounts. But in 2026, another question belongs on the same list: can shoppers find the item in stock and choose a delivery option that works for them? This does not mean promotions have stopped mattering. It is a reason to look beyond price and fix operational friction before order volumes rise.
The published figures are forecasts, not final results, and they do not cover identical periods or methods. Adobe estimates that U.S. online retail sales from November 1 through December 31, 2026, will grow 6.7% year over year. The National Retail Federation, meanwhile, forecasts 4.2% growth in total retail sales for November and December, a measure broader than ecommerce alone. Read each forecast according to its scope rather than treating them as directly comparable measures. (Adobe; NRF).
The recent signal: a sale can be lost before checkout
In a November 10, 2026, release, DHL summarized U.S. findings from its ecommerce trends report. Among them, 68% of surveyed shoppers said they abandon purchases when a product is out of stock or unavailable. Sixty-six percent said they abandon a purchase if delivery options do not meet their expectations. These are findings from a logistics company’s survey; they do not describe every shopper or prove that every store has the same problem. They do, however, point to two specific issues merchants can check against their own data. (DHL’s U.S. findings).
A promotion can attract attention; accurate availability and clear delivery information help make a purchase possible.
This distinction matters in practice. More advertising or lower prices will not fix a product page with incorrect stock, an unclear delivery estimate, or a shipping cost revealed late in checkout. Before adding incentives, find out where customers’ actual purchase journeys break down.
What to check in your store first
- Visible availability: Check that published stock matches what can actually be sold. Review variants, reservations, pending orders, and products sold across multiple channels.
- Understandable delivery promises: Show available choices, costs, and a clear estimate before shoppers have to complete payment. Do not promise speed the operation cannot sustain.
- Updates after purchase: Decide what messages customers receive and how they can check an order’s status. An order confirmation is not a substitute for an update when a date changes or a delay occurs.
- Mobile experience: Adobe forecasts that mobile will account for 57.4% of U.S. online holiday spending. Check on a real phone that shoppers can read delivery estimates, select shipping, and complete checkout without errors. This is a forecast, not a guarantee for your store.
Turn those signals into a seasonal plan
1. Start with internal tests
Choose products with different patterns: fast sellers, products with variants, items with uncertain replenishment, and products shipped from different locations. Walk through each product page as a customer and compare what it promises with operational data. Then test the cart and checkout using the delivery options actually enabled. Record each issue with an owner and a resolution date; do not consider it fixed until it has been tested again.
2. Choose where to offer options—and where not to
More choices do not always mean better service. For each area, decide which methods you can fulfill, under what conditions, and who handles changes. If you cannot guarantee same-day delivery, do not turn that expectation into a marketing promise. A slower option that is clearly explained and dependable may be preferable to a faster offer that is missed.
3. Prepare for exceptions
During peak season, stockouts, delays, or synchronization errors may occur. Decide who can correct inventory, how customers will be notified, and what alternatives are available. Customers should not have to discover an important change only after contacting support. A simple, visible process is more useful than adding automated messages without confirmed information.
What not to conclude from the forecasts
Expected growth in U.S. ecommerce does not mean every store will sell more, nor does it mean the same pattern applies in other countries. It also does not prove delivery always matters more than price. Adobe, DHL, and NRF publish estimates or survey findings with different scopes; use them as context for questions, not as a substitute for your business metrics. Compare your visits, conversion, abandonment, availability, and delivery inquiries with your own past periods, using consistent measurement.
Do not adopt technology or speed up shipping just because a report mentions it. DHL also reports shopper concerns about privacy, trust, and security around AI. If you introduce new tools, explain what they do, limit the data they need, and check that the messages they generate are accurate. Novelty cannot make a confusing operation reliable.
The actionable decision
Before expanding discounts, run a short review of inventory, delivery, and customer updates: test the most important purchase paths, fix the errors affecting the most products first, and confirm that every advertised delivery estimate can be met. Then use your own data to decide whether the next effort belongs in promotions, logistics, or mobile usability. In a competitive season, a simple, dependable promise may be more valuable than another offer that does not address the real obstacle.
